Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 5 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 22 June 2026 at 21:45 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 32nd strongest of the 135 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 12 March 2026. The last comparable one was on 18 June 2026. 2 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 22 at 5:35PM EDT until June 22 at 5:45PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
Urban PEI: 42,354 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 12 March 2026
- September 4, 2026 · score 45 · 6.6 km
- August 28, 2026 · score 34 · 12.7 km
- August 10, 2026 · score 39 · 14.7 km
How we know
3 recorded sources include NOAA; independence is not established by this count.
Our own score for this event is 34 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 34 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.87/1 |
| Coordinates | 39.0503, -78.2925 |
| Nearest City | Front Royal (17 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 42.4K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-06-22T21:35:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.c33a65f00cd82c8f17cd25301d33c3e9 |
Physical priority index · v1. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-06-22T21:35:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-06-22T21:36:56.260Z. Material modification: not recorded.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Culpeper, VA; Fairfax, VA; Fauquier, VA; Prince William, VA; Rappahannock, VA; Stafford, VA; City of Manassas, VA; City of Manassas Park, VA; Somerset, PA; Caroline, VA; Fluvanna, VA; Goochland, VA; Hanover, VA; Louisa, VA and 2 more areas |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 22 at 5:35PM EDT until June 22 at 5:45PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-06-22T17:45:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 5 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.c33a65f00cd82c8f17cd25301d33c3e95afd6cb2.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.9802d42f45ca0d7e0506a9a586e68af4a2e2532e.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.195bb2740e6f48bafe915eb2be50dd050d6e855a.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.3d47cd7d8ba9ad69bb120c17d2a057e20607584e.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.d8ce14ee2530c2c2376e61dbe8a57d999ee22a6d.001.1"] |
| Iem TypeSummary | D |
| Iem City | 2 WSW Five Forks |
| Iem County | Rappahannock |
| Iem State | VA |
| Iem Wfo | LWX |
| Iem Remark | Trees down Sperryville Pike (US-522). |
| MergedSources | [{"id":"iem_D_38.630_-78.490_1782157740000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1782157740000,"latitude":38.63,"longitude":-78.49},{"id":"iem_D_38.640_-78.200_1782159540000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1782159540000,"latitude":38.64,"longitude":-78.2}] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Review the area, threshold and delivery channel in your account.
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